An Open Question: Will the Public Punish the Parties for the Shutdown?

As the government shutdown drags on, the most important open question is whether the public will ultimately punish the parties responsible for the crisis. The political calculations of both Democrats and Republicans are based on their predictions of the answer, and this uncertainty is a major reason the stalemate that continued Wednesday has been so hard to break.
Historically, the political fallout from shutdowns has been mixed. Often, public anger is diffuse, and by the time the next election comes around, other issues have taken center stage. The party that is perceived to have “started” the shutdown often takes an initial hit in the polls, but this can fade over time.
Both parties are currently gambling that the blame will fall on the other side. Democrats believe the public will side with them on the popular issue of protecting healthcare and will punish Republicans for their refusal to negotiate. Republicans believe the public will blame Democrats for holding the government hostage and will reward the GOP for standing on principle.
The key variable will be the severity and duration of the shutdown’s impact. If the crisis escalates to a point where it is causing widespread and undeniable harm—such as a prolonged failure to pay the military or a major disruption to the economy—the public’s demand for accountability could become overwhelming.
Ultimately, the voters will be the referees in this political fight. The fear of their judgment is the most powerful incentive for compromise in Washington. The question is how much damage has to be done before that fear outweighs the perceived benefits of continuing the fight.